Sweet Bonanza Candyland is Pragmatic Play’s answer to Evolution’s Crazy Time. Like Crazy Time, many players are looking for a stats tracker to predict when the lucrative bonus rounds hit.
These players are looking for a signal that one of the four bonus rounds in Sweet Bonanza Candyland is ‘due’.
Usually, the number of spins that elapsed since the wheel last triggered that bonus round.
Ideally, you’d have a stats analysis tool and a detailed stats tracker to help with this goal. And that’s what I have created below.
On this page, I will explain what’s behind this idea of a bonus round being cold or hot.
We’ll also look to see if math and laws of probability support the theory and what you should do instead if they don’t.
And of course, you can review the previous results up to the last month and analyse the statistics in the table.
Probably because Sweet Bonanza Candyland isn’t as popular as Crazy Time, there haven’t been any third-party stats trackers available for this Pragmatic Play game until now.
Pragmatic has supplied me with access to the spin and result data. With some magic and clever programming, I can display the historical results data, showing every result up to the last month and, for each, its performance.
The built-in history tracker on the game only shows the results of the previous 500 spins. While this is good, it’s just raw data. No tool would make sense of the data and instantly tell you whether a bonus round such as Bubble Surprise is ‘due’ or not. Or, more precisely, is it currently exceeding or falling short of expectations?
However, I’ve been able to supply that information below explaining what you can expect from each bonus round, i.e. what is the mathematically accurate expectation for each of them.
Use this information wisely.
Note: The raw results information provided below comes directly from Pragmatic Play. I have no control over the data feed. Sometimes the feed does not work, affecting the long-term averages displayed.
You play Sweet Bonanza on a wheel-of-fortune that consists of 54 segments.
Most of the segments are numbers: 1, 2 and 5. They fill 45 sections or 83.33% of the wheel, while the remaining nine sections or 16.67% have one of four bonus round segments. Therefore there is a 16.67% chance of a bonus round being triggered on any given spin.
In the table below are the probabilities for each outcome.
For clarity, I have added an interval, which would be the expected number of spins between two outcome occurrences. For example, for the Sugar Bomb to have a perfect 5.56% hit rate, according to the number of segments it’s on, it would hit once every 18 spins.
The table lets you make sense of the results history to a certain degree and tell if the outcome is hot or cold. For example, if Sugar Bomb hasn’t hit in more than 18 spins, it’s performing below its expected hit rate. For the Candy Drop bonus round, that number is 27 spins. With Sweet Spins, it’s 54.
With a bit of practice, you should be able to read the 500-spin history of Sweet Bonanza Candyland successfully.
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Many gamblers wrongly believe that if some outcome hasn’t happened in a while, it’s due to happen soon. Or, at the very least, it’s more likely to occur than some other outcome that has happened more recently.
A gambler who has fallen prey to the Gambler’s fallacy (also called the fallacy of the maturity of chances) looks for patterns. Suppose we look at the Sweet Bonanza Candyland’s 500-spin history as an example. If Sugar Bomb, Bubble Surprise and Candy Drop were all triggered recently, but Sweet Spins had not, the gambler would be inclined to place a bet on Sweet Spins.
In reality, the wheel-of-fortune has no memory of previous results. The result of the next spin is independent of all the previous spins.
Over time, as the law of large numbers says, the results will even out. In the long run, we can expect Bubble Surprise to come up 5.56% of the time.
The fallacy stems from the wrong belief that the expected hit rate must correct itself when it reaches a specific value.
The result might correct itself, or it might not. Even if it does we don’t know when will that be. Players also believe the more prolonged the result isn’t corrected or the more it deviates from the expected hit rate, the more likely it is to get corrected. This belief is not rooted in reality.
Finally, even if the result is corrected, and even if it were more likely to be corrected, the more wrong it was – we wouldn’t know on which spin it would happen. It might correct now, or it might correct 200 spins from now by hitting three times in a row. We can’t possibly place a bet on any given spin and say this is the one where the result corrects.
Even if the Sweet Spins bonus round hasn’t been triggered for 1000 spins, we couldn’t claim that it will hit in the next 100 spins, let alone in the next dozen or less.
The Sweet Bonanza Candyland tracker I’ve created has all these data points.
This data helps you see how the game of Sweet Bonanza Candyland plays out in reality and which of the bonus rounds is the better bet.
This tool is worth using. It doesn’t try to predict the results of future spins but gives you an idea of what the might be.
It’s easiest to go to my own Sweet Bonanza Candyland strategy I use when I play this game.
For best results, you’d need to know which of the four bonus rounds is paying out the best. You need to decide whether Sweet Spins, the rarest bonus round, is worth the long wait. It would have to be worth exactly twice as much as Candy Drop since it occurs half as often.
In short, players want to know which of the bonus rounds is paying better than it should, compared to its occurrence frequency. Now that would be the holy grail the stats trackers could give us.
I can only say the Sugar Bomb Booster is not a bet you should be making, as it’s a losing proposition.
I’d ignore the Sugar Bomb bonus round altogether, focusing – and placing bets – on the other three. Plus, I’d bet on Number 1 to keep the bankroll healthy for longer while waiting for the bonus rounds to trigger. Hopefully, that strategy will bring a significant win.
You may devise your own strategy, but the principle will be the same. Find a bonus round you like better than the others, and bet on it consistently – don’t try to time the bet!