Monopoly Live is a live game show by Evolution that uses a money wheel with 54 segments. Only four trigger the bonus round, so many players use results trackers to see if a bonus round is ‘due’.
In this article, I will explain why people use results trackers, whether they are using them properly, and if not, what is the correct way to use them.
I will also explain the rules of Monopoly Live and the usual probabilities for the bonus rounds.
Please read this before making the wrong conclusion about the Monopoly Live bonus round, how often it should hit, and about it being hot or cold.
This article is, after all, about how to use these stats trackers to win more money when you do win and how to lose less frequently by not placing the wrong bet.
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The stats trackers for Monopoly Live can display the following information:
Later I will explain how to use the information provided by the tracker.
Now let’s first explain the essential thing in Monopoly Live – the bonus round that takes you to a 3D board where you can play an actual game of Monopoly.
Of 54 segments, 48 contain the numbers 1, 2, 5 and 10. You can bet on these numbers and win the amount it says on the segment. Betting on these is an excellent way to get small to medium wins, but it is not what most players are after.
Then 2 segments say, Chance. If the wheel stops on this segment, everyone gets a cash prize or a multiplier for the next spin.
There are three ‘2 ROLLS’ segments and one ‘4 ROLLS’ segment. These are the important segments in Monopoly Live as they trigger the bonus round.
When the bonus round is triggered, a 3D Monopoly Board will come into view. Players with an active bet will get to play the board game.
The live presenter will initially roll the dice two or four times, depending on which segment triggered the bonus round. The bonus prizes collected from the board are paid out when the bonus round ends and are multipliers of the bet amount made to enter the bonus round.
To read more about the bonus round, including a video review, visit my Monopoly Live Strategy page.
To know when the bonus round is ‘due’, we first have to know how often it is expected to hit in the first place.
Combined, the 2 ROLLS and 4 ROLLS segments make up for 7.40% of the wheel, so that’s exactly how often they’re supposed to hit over an infinite number of spins in the long run.
The 2 ROLLS segment is expected to hit 5.56% of the time, while the 4 ROLLS segment is expected to hit 1.85% of the time, roughly twice every 100 spins.
| Outcome | Number of sections | Probability | Interval |
| Number 1 | 22 sections | 40.74% | 2.5 spins |
| Number 2 | 15 sections | 27.78% | 4 spins |
| Number 5 | 7 sections | 12.96% | 8 spins |
| Number 10 | 4 sections | 7.41% | 14 spins |
| Chance | 2 sections | 3.70% | 27 spins |
| 2 ROLLS | 3 sections | 5.56% | 18 spins |
| 4 ROLLS | 1 section | 1.85% | 54 spins |
| 2 ROLLS + 4 ROLLS | 4 sections | 7.41% | 14 spins |
Based on the above probabilities, players are tempted to believe the bonus round is ‘due’ if it didn’t hit for a while and if, therefore, the observed number of occurrences of the bonus round is lately smaller than it ‘should have’ been.
This is, of course, a gambler’s fallacy, the wrong belief that a random event is supposed to go one way or the other.
The wheel in Monopoly Live is entirely random. Meaning any of the 54 results is equally likely, and the wheel has no memory of previous spins. It does NOT even out after a result.
Eventually, it does because it would be mathematically impossible not to regress to actual probabilities, but this is observed over an infinite number of spins.
It is impossible to know which event is due in any smaller sample size.
Or, in other words, even if we knew 2 ROLLS were due, we couldn’t possibly know if it’s due on this spin or will the ‘even out’ happen 100 spins from now.
The best use for any Monopoly Live stats tracker, or looking at the results history, is to get an overall feel for how the game usually plays out.
For example, it will quickly become evident that the wheel most commonly stops on Number 1. And that it might just be a good idea to keep placing a small bet on it to keep you going while you wait for the bonus round.
Also, you will realize that you should bet on 2 ROLLS and 4 ROLLS simultaneously because it’s impossible to predict which of the two will hit. On the one hand, 4 ROLLS is much rarer, but it pays better.
Make your conclusions about the game when you look at the math, the odds, the probabilities and the payouts. And when you look at the results history.
Crucially, you will be able to see how much the bonus round pay in general and whether it is worth betting on all the time. For example, if the 4 ROLLS come up once every 54 spins, it would have to pay 54x on average for you to break even in the long run.
This thinking about the game will allow you to make an excellent educated guess on which bets are profitable and which are not.
Just don’t ever start thinking any of the outcomes is due.
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