Lightning Dice Results Tracker - Win more by looking at the history of results
Introduction
Lightning Dice is an Evolution live dealer game that involves three dice. The objective is to predict the sum of the three dice, which drop down through a complex perspex tower designed to guarantee absolute randomness in the outcome.
Additionally, the game incorporates random multipliers applied to the payouts of particular results.
Using result trackers to predict the totals or multipliers of future results is flawed. The trackers do a good job providing information on previous results, often highlighting the Hot and Cold totals, which some players use to help them decide where to place their subsequent bets.
This approach can give some success, but previous results are not an indicator of what happens next, so there is a degree of luck if you happen to win this way.
Fortunately, other methods will increase your profitability while playing Lightning Dice.
The previous results help, not because you can predict the next roll's outcome or where the multiplier will land, but because you can see how the game behaves against probabilities.
You'll win more if you read this article, as you'll learn to make fewer costly mistakes and start playing in sync with the game's odds and probabilities.
A misunderstanding of math and probability harms your profits in this game
Lightning Dice Overview
Lightning Dice is a live dealer game by Evolution where three dice are rolled in each game round.
You have one job - to bet on what you think the sum of the three dice will be. You can bet on one or multiple totals, affecting your winning probability.
Win multipliers are assigned to specific outcome totals every two to four game rounds. You'll get a greater payout if you guess the total correctly and it has a multiplier.
After reading this article, you'll understand that predicting when the win multiplier appears is easier than the dice roll outcome.
Lightning Dice Probabilities and Odds
Let's do some math.
There are three dice in Lightning Dice, making 16 possible outcomes for the total sum of numbers on the three dice.
Not every outcome has an equal chance of happening. For example, there is only a single way of getting a sum of 18 - landing three sixes, while there are 25 ways in which three dice can reach an exact sum of 9.
In the table below, you can see the probabilities for each total, with the usual payout for those totals and the maximum multiplier you can get in the game.
Two, three or four-win multipliers are assigned to totals in every game round.
| Totals | Normal Payout | Max Multiplier | Probability |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3 or 18 | 149:1 | 999:1 | 0.463% |
| 4 or 17 | 49:1 | 499:1 | 1.389% |
| 5 or 16 | 24:1 | 249:1 | 2.778% |
| 6 or 15 | 14:1 | 99:1 | 4.630% |
| 7 or 14 | 9:1 | 99:1 | 6.944% |
| 8 or 13 | 6:1 | 49:1 | 9.722% |
| 9 or 12 | 5:1 | 49:1 | 11.574% |
| 10 or 11 | 4:1 | 49:1 | 12.500% |
Using the above probabilities, you can fine-tune your chance of winning on Lightning Dice by choosing the totals you bet on wisely.
For example, if you cover the four most common totals, 9, 10, 11 and 12, you'll cover 104 of the 216 combinations, for a probability of 48.15%.
If you also add totals of 8 and 13 to that, you'll be covering 67.59% of possible dice roll outcomes.
The value bets are 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, and 13.
These totals receive win multipliers of up to 49:1, or 50x, while the normal payout range is from 5x to 7x. You get a decent return on the most common totals while still having a chance to land a big win multiplier.
The RTP of these total bets ranges from 96.03% to 96.21%. On average, it's safe to say RTP is around 96%.
Evolution has done an excellent job of creating a paytable where no bets have better theoretical value than the others.
We know how big the multipliers are and their value for the number ranges. What we don't know is how often they land. We also know the payouts for the total bets are smaller than they should be - totals of 10 should pay 8x and not 5x because the remainder is used to fund the multipliers.
Why use results trackers for Lightning Dice
Players try to make sense of games that deliver random results that repeat themselves periodically. They attempt to do the impossible and predict the next roll and the next win multiplier.
Lightning Dice uses dice that get tumbled around extensively. There is no way to predict which outcome is due, as every dice roll is independent of all previous and future ones.
The only thing for sure is the probabilities detailed in the table above.
Do the results even out in the long run, you ask?
Yes, according to the Law of Averages, they do.
However, they do revert to mean over an infinite number of rolls. You'd be wrong to expect that to occur over a few hundred rolls. If any regression to mean is 'due', it is impossible to tell if it will happen on the next roll or the one after that.
This means you can't use results trackers to predict which of the dice roll outcomes is most likely. You also can't use them to predict what totals are due to get a win multiplier.
What results trackers can tell you.
It's good to use results trackers to see how the game plays out in real life and to compare it to the table of probabilities.
Just glancing at results, trackers immediately tell you how unpredictable dice rolls are.
There can be 500 rolls between two result totals of 18, or it can happen twice in 40 rolls.
Probabilities don't lie, but the distribution can be unreliable, again stressing that history trackers can't be used to predict the next roll's outcome.
An interesting thing to note is that while the dice rolls are very unpredictable, as dice tend to be, the distribution of win multipliers looks normal.
It's rare for a number not to get a win multiplier for more than four or five rolls in a row.
The multipliers themselves still have randomness to them, but what you can be pretty sure of is your number won't go without a multiplier for too long.
That's the kind of conclusion you can make from results trackers; It's because the use and distribution of the multipliers are controlled by the RNG, which is tasked to deliver multipliers randomly while keeping the game within its published RTP.
Can Lightning Dice be beaten?
No, I don't think it can.
Dice rolls, in general, are wildly random - and the additional variance of win multipliers doesn't help one bit.
It makes the game even wilder than if the win multipliers didn't exist and the main payouts were larger.
This is also true for the regular Sic Bo vs Sic Bo with multipliers dilemma. The standard-payout game pays more.
Attempts to tame Lightning Dice and have it pay out regularly will likely fail miserably.
Since the game has such an incredibly high variance, a better choice is to go with the flow and give yourself a chance to win big.
Try to exploit the results that occur less to get some incredible wins.
A bet on 3 and 18 can get you a 1000x win multiplier, and a bet on 4 and 17 can get you a multiplier of 500x.
If you bet on those four totals, your overall chance of winning will be 3.70% or one in every 27 rolls.
That doesn't sound like a bad start for a Lightning Dice strategy. In a game like this that promises big wins and reasonable odds, giving yourself a chance to get those big wins is vital.
This is especially true now that we know that win multiplier in Lightning Dice are reasonably predictable, as you'll never be without one for too long.